Kamala Harris' chances of winning the election in November have plunged, according to an online betting platform. Polymarket, ...

Lichtman's election predictions rely on a distinctive model called the "13 Keys," a set of thirteen true-false questions ...

Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley were all mentioned as potential future presidents ...

Allan Lichtman, historian and professor at American University, joins us on The Excerpt to discuss his 2024 presidential ...

The historian who correctly predicted nine of the ten most recent presidential elections said that any October surprise is a ...

Dr Thomas Miller modelling shows Trump’s predicted Electoral College votes have risen in the last 10 days from 230 to 275 ...

Often the forecasters are the first to push back on the characterization that they can tell you what’s going to happen.

If you just read the headlines, it seems like things are going fairly well for Vice President Kamala Harris as we get closer ...

On Tuesday, 538 released its 2024 election forecast for the House of Representatives. The general idea behind our forecast is ...

These cases together remind us that error stalks even the most confident of forecasts and that elite opinion is not always ...

Prediction markets for American elections have been growing despite their legal and regulatory issues. How do they work, and ...

A federal appeals court in Washington, DC, on Wednesday allowed a prediction market to offer election betting, denying a ...